Moon Studio Kagura Championship · BO3
result vs prediction
Crocodilewin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
请回答1988loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Crocodile
No games played over 6 months.
请回答1988
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
61 picks · 130 bans
Puck
53 picks · 141 bans
Earth Spirit
51 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
47 picks · 83 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 46 bans
Undying
41 picks · 63 bans
Monkey King
39 picks · 81 bans
Rubick
39 picks · 21 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Crocodile
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:32
Crocodile 53%请回答1988 47%
The model gave 53% on Crocodile — the game was taken by 请回答1988 in 40:30.
Game 2prediction correct21:44
Crocodile 53%请回答1988 47%
The model gave 53% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Crocodile in 37:11.
Game 3prediction correct27:10
Crocodile 53%请回答1988 47%
The model gave 53% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Crocodile in 26:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 53%
Series resultCrocodile 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3