Moon Studio Kagura Championship · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 4 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Lym- · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
db- · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
db- · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 2 games
Neon Esports
Miranaoften banned
Skem · 3 games
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Yopaj · 1 game
Clockwerk
Skem · 1 game
Disruptor
Jaunuel · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
61 picks · 128 bans
Puck
53 picks · 139 bans
Earth Spirit
51 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
47 picks · 82 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 46 bans
Undying
41 picks · 62 bans
Monkey King
39 picks · 80 bans
Rubick
39 picks · 21 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 71%
Hero pool strength61% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 73%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect