Moon Studio Kagura Championship · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragonwin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Crocodileloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon
No games played over 6 months.
Crocodile
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
61 picks · 128 bans
Puck
53 picks · 139 bans
Earth Spirit
51 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
47 picks · 82 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 46 bans
Undying
41 picks · 62 bans
Monkey King
39 picks · 80 bans
Rubick
39 picks · 21 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Dragon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 59%
Series resultDragon 2:1
Series predictioncorrect