Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTTeam TikTokloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Team TikTok
Dark Willow
illusion · 4 games
Grimstroke
633 · 3 games
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 3 games
Witch Doctor
633 · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Dark Seer
DkFogas · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
58 picks · 121 bans
Puck
50 picks · 132 bans
Earth Spirit
47 picks · 38 bans
Void Spirit
43 picks · 74 bans
Phoenix
38 picks · 44 bans
Monkey King
36 picks · 74 bans
Undying
34 picks · 59 bans
Shadow Shaman
33 picks · 7 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team TikTok
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team TikTok
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:33
Team Unique 38%Team TikTok 62%
The model gave 62% on Team TikTok — the game was taken by Team TikTok in 29:52.
Game 2prediction correct23:14
Team Unique 38%Team TikTok 62%
The model gave 62% on Team TikTok — the game was taken by Team TikTok in 22:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam TikTok · 62%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2