Moon Studio Kagura Championship · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Miranaoften banned
Skem · 3 games
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Yopaj · 1 game
Clockwerk
Skem · 1 game
Disruptor
Jaunuel · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
58 picks · 121 bans
Puck
50 picks · 132 bans
Earth Spirit
47 picks · 38 bans
Void Spirit
43 picks · 74 bans
Phoenix
38 picks · 44 bans
Monkey King
36 picks · 74 bans
Undying
34 picks · 59 bans
Shadow Shaman
33 picks · 7 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 60%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect