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Moon Studio Kagura Championship · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuses
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start
Team Sirius
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 4 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Lym- · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
db- · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 3 games
33%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 2 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
db- · 2 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 2 games
0%

Team Sirius

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
58 picks · 121 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
50 picks · 132 bans
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
47 picks · 38 bans
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
43 picks · 74 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
38 picks · 44 bans
52%
Monkey King
Monkey King
36 picks · 74 bans
40%
Undying
Undying
34 picks · 59 bans
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
33 picks · 7 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Team Sirius
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Sirius
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sirius · 54%