PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Tusk
Fernans · 20 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
Warlock
flacko · 16 games
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 13 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Fernans · 13 games
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 14 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 13 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
Axeoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Sand King
mellojul · 11 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
551 picks · 833 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
475 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 579 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 758 bans
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 584 bans
Mars
344 picks · 480 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:32
Inner Circle 54%Team Lynx 46%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawlaise
Clinkz7jesu
Storm Spiritniche
BrewmasterVladikTheHtiviy
Dragon Knight423
Primal Beastmellojul
PhoenixSe
RingmasterQBFY
TuskDaze
Treant Protectorkreker
Game 2prediction correct18:14
Inner Circle 54%Team Lynx 46%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling423
Shadow Fiend7jesu
Beastmasterniche
Sand Kingmellojul
Phoenixlaise
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
WarlockSe
Treant Protectorkreker
TuskDaze
RingmasterQBFY
Game 3prediction missed3:22
Inner Circle 54%Team Lynx 46%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 19:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskarniche
Shadow Fiend7jesu
Dragon Knight423
BrewmasterVladikTheHtiviy
Slardarlaise
Ember Spiritmellojul
Dark WillowDaze
RingmasterQBFY
JakiroSe
Tuskkreker
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 59%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3