Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionKKasatikiloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TGTeam Generationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kasatiki
No games played over 6 months.
Team Generation
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
57 picks · 118 bans
Puck
50 picks · 129 bans
Earth Spirit
45 picks · 36 bans
Void Spirit
42 picks · 71 bans
Phoenix
37 picks · 44 bans
Monkey King
36 picks · 72 bans
Undying
32 picks · 57 bans
Mirana
31 picks · 35 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Kasatiki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Generation
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:30
Kasatiki 42%Team Generation 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Generation — the game was taken by Team Generation in 23:51.
Game 2prediction missed29:12
Kasatiki 42%Team Generation 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Generation — the game was taken by Kasatiki in 34:06.
Game 3prediction correct13:30
Kasatiki 42%Team Generation 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Generation — the game was taken by Team Generation in 34:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Generation · 58%
Series resultTeam Generation 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3