Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionXXactJlepbIwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSTotally Spiesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XactJlepbI
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
lightless · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nofear · 2 games
Pangolier
Funn1k · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
nofear · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
Funn1k · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
lightless · 1 game
Totally Spies
Earth Spirit
b1kA · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mirage · 1 game
Disruptor
PuberrrR · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
PuberrrR · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
PuberrrR · 1 game
Iooften banned
b1kA · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Watson · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
57 picks · 118 bans
Puck
50 picks · 129 bans
Earth Spirit
45 picks · 36 bans
Void Spirit
42 picks · 71 bans
Phoenix
37 picks · 44 bans
Monkey King
36 picks · 72 bans
Undying
32 picks · 57 bans
Mirana
31 picks · 35 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:18
XactJlepbI 51%Totally Spies 49%
The model gave 51% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMagicaL
MorphlingWatson
Drow Rangerlightless
Death ProphetMirage
TimbersawFunn1k
GrimstrokePuberrrR
Shadow ShamanKingR
Earth Spiritb1kA
Undyingnofear
Game 2prediction missed35:32
XactJlepbI 49%Totally Spies 51%
The model gave 51% on Totally Spies — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerMagicaL
TerrorbladeWatson
Drow Rangerlightless
LeshracMirage
MiranaKingR
Keeper of the Lightb1kA
MarsFunn1k
OraclePuberrrR
Elder Titannofear
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 52%
Series resultXactJlepbI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2