Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportswin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SGshibu gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cascade Esports
No games played over 6 months.
shibu gaming
Miranaoften banned
August · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
August · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
57 picks · 118 bans
Puck
50 picks · 129 bans
Earth Spirit
45 picks · 36 bans
Void Spirit
42 picks · 71 bans
Phoenix
37 picks · 44 bans
Monkey King
36 picks · 72 bans
Undying
32 picks · 57 bans
Mirana
31 picks · 35 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Cascade Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Cascade Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCascade Esports · 53%
Series resultCascade Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect