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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPangolierwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPangolier

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ghostik · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Bignum · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pikachu · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 1 game
0%

Winstrike Team

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
re1bl · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Panto · 2 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 2 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
yamich · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
chshrct · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
dyrachyo · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
57 picks · 115 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
49 picks · 127 bans
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
44 picks · 36 bans
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
42 picks · 68 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
36 picks · 70 bans
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
35 picks · 43 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
32 picks · 57 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
31 picks · 35 bans
40%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% NoPangolier
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
NoPangolier 51%Winstrike Team 49%
The model gave 51% on NoPangolier — the game was taken by NoPangolier in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPalantimos
little data57% · 3 games
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
Wraith King
Kunkka
KunkkaPikachu
little data25% · 4 games
Puckre1bl
Puck
Axe
AxeGhostik
little datalittle data
Dark Seerchshrct
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixCeMaTheSlayeR
61% · 7 gameslittle data
EnigmaPanto
Enigma
Lion
LionBignum
little datalittle data
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed10:21
NoPangolier 51%Winstrike Team 49%
The model gave 51% on NoPangolier — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 27:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPalantimos
little datalittle data
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPikachu
43% · 3 gameslittle data
Pugnare1bl
Pugna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGhostik
little data57% · 3 games
Tidehunterchshrct
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixBignum
60% · 7 games38% · 4 games
Shadow Shamanyamich
Shadow Shaman
Axe
AxeCeMaTheSlayeR
little data43% · 3 games
GrimstrokePanto
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct35:11
NoPangolier 55%Winstrike Team 45%
The model gave 55% on NoPangolier — the game was taken by NoPangolier in 28:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPalantimos
little datalittle data
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Tidehunter
TidehunterPikachu
little datalittle data
Batriderre1bl
Batrider
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGhostik
67% · 7 gameslittle data
Viperchshrct
Viper
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCeMaTheSlayeR
little data43% · 3 games
Earth Spirityamich
Earth Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
little data25% · 4 games
OraclePanto
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPangolier · 52%
Series resultNoPangolier 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3