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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Prisonersloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Prisoners

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 19 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
young G · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Underlord
Underlord
Covisnine · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
550 picks · 832 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 368 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
475 picks · 643 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 578 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 754 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 584 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 478 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 540 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:9
Team Prisoners 26%Nemiga Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:35.
Game 2prediction correct9:29
Team Prisoners 26%Nemiga Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 26:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 74%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2