Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Into The Breachloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 1 game
Dark Seer
BliNcc · 1 game
Lich
Flash · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dEsire · 1 game
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Into The Breach
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
55 picks · 108 bans
Puck
44 picks · 121 bans
Earth Spirit
42 picks · 32 bans
Void Spirit
39 picks · 65 bans
Phoenix
34 picks · 42 bans
Monkey King
33 picks · 67 bans
Mirana
31 picks · 34 bans
Nyx Assassin
30 picks · 96 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:57
No Bounty Hunter 49%Into The Breach 51%
The model gave 51% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 37:57.
Game 2prediction missed51:26
No Bounty Hunter 49%Into The Breach 51%
The model gave 51% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 36:16.
Game 3prediction missed33:16
No Bounty Hunter 49%Into The Breach 51%
The model gave 51% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 29:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 51%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3