Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TGTeam Generationwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 3 games
Tusk
Lodine · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
TheChosenOne · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 2 games
Axe
TheChosenOne · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
tatakae · 1 game
Jakiro
Lodine · 1 game
Linaoften banned
TheChosenOne · 1 game
Team Generation
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
55 picks · 107 bans
Puck
44 picks · 120 bans
Earth Spirit
42 picks · 32 bans
Void Spirit
39 picks · 64 bans
Phoenix
34 picks · 42 bans
Monkey King
32 picks · 67 bans
Mirana
30 picks · 34 bans
Nyx Assassin
30 picks · 96 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Team Generation
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:32
Nemiga Gaming 47%Team Generation 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Generation — the game was taken by Team Generation in 56:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Generation · 53%
Series resultTeam Generation 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1