Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTMTrouble Makers Youthwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Respectloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Trouble Makers Youth
No games played over 6 months.
Zero Respect
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
54 picks · 102 bans
Puck
43 picks · 113 bans
Earth Spirit
41 picks · 31 bans
Void Spirit
39 picks · 59 bans
Phoenix
34 picks · 41 bans
Monkey King
32 picks · 64 bans
Mirana
30 picks · 33 bans
Nyx Assassin
29 picks · 90 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Trouble Makers Youth
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Trouble Makers Youth
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:17
Trouble Makers Youth 55%Zero Respect 45%
The model gave 55% on Trouble Makers Youth — the game was taken by Trouble Makers Youth in 37:19.
Game 2prediction correct40:10
Trouble Makers Youth 55%Zero Respect 45%
The model gave 55% on Trouble Makers Youth — the game was taken by Trouble Makers Youth in 35:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteTrouble Makers Youth · 55%
Series resultTrouble Makers Youth 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2