PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sskebobwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 38 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 37 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 35 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 31 game
Tusk
slimeyao · 30 games
Snapfire
RESPECT · 29 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 29 games
skebob
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
550 picks · 828 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 578 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 750 bans
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 584 bans
Mars
344 picks · 475 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:33
HULIGANI 83%skebob 17%
The model gave 83% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by skebob in 47:25.
Game 2prediction missed47:21
HULIGANI 83%skebob 17%
The model gave 83% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by skebob in 55:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 83%
Series resultskebob 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2