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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 2 games
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
MS · 2 games
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 2 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Irving · 1 game
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
MS · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Irving · 1 game
100%

Phoenix Gaming

Mirana
Miranaoften banned
pLAnet · 4 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 2 games
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
shiro · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
zzq · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
shiro · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
51 picks · 87 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
41 picks · 98 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
37 picks · 30 bans
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
37 picks · 55 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
28 picks · 57 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
27 picks · 37 bans
58%
Undying
Undying
27 picks · 51 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
26 picks · 32 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% LBZS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:19
LBZS 53%Phoenix Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMS
29% · 3 gameslittle data
Phantom Lancershiro
Phantom Lancer
Sand King
Sand KingIrving
little data50% · 9 games
PuckMercury
Puck
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCatYou
62% · 20 games57% · 3 games
PhoenixpLAnet
Phoenix
Omniknight
Omniknightxiaofu
little data27% · 7 games
MarsMolasses
Mars
38% · 4 games
Brewmasterzzq
Brewmaster
Game 2prediction correct23:16
LBZS 54%Phoenix Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMS
43% · 3 games44% · 8 games
Wraith Kingshiro
Wraith King
Timbersaw
TimbersawIrving
43% · 6 games57% · 3 games
TidehunterMolasses
Tidehunter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCatYou
61% · 10 gameslittle data
ZeusMercury
Zeus
Undying
Undyingxiaofu
43% · 3 games50% · 11 games
MiranapLAnet
Mirana
little data
Elder Titanzzq
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 52%
Series resultLBZS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2