PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BDBloodstone Denyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 28 games
Underlord
Nefrit · 28 games
Warlock
Se · 28 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 27 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 27 games
Bloodstone Deny
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
550 picks · 826 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 578 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 749 bans
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 581 bans
Mars
344 picks · 475 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:17
Zero Tenacity 93%Bloodstone Deny 7%
The model gave 93% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 24:50.
Game 2prediction correct36:17
Zero Tenacity 93%Bloodstone Deny 7%
The model gave 93% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 93%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2