Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Omega Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Death Prophetoften banned
Mushi · 4 games
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 2 games
Chaos Knight
Mushi · 2 games
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 2 games
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 2 games
Miranaoften banned
AhFu · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ninjaboogie · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 2 games
Omega Esports
Tiny
Boomy · 4 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 2 games
Brewmaster
Bok · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Boomy · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
50 picks · 84 bans
Puck
40 picks · 96 bans
Earth Spirit
36 picks · 29 bans
Void Spirit
36 picks · 52 bans
Monkey King
28 picks · 56 bans
Phoenix
27 picks · 37 bans
Undying
26 picks · 51 bans
Nyx Assassin
25 picks · 82 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:40
Team SMG 35%Omega Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 23:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeavervtFαded
BatriderMac
PuckMushi
RikiTino-
Earth SpiritOhaiyo
Legion CommanderBok
BrewmasterAhFu
RubickBoomy
43% · 3 games
Grimstrokecml
Game 2prediction correct15:19
Team SMG 31%Omega Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 30:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancervtFαded
MorphlingTino-
TidehunterMushi
LeshracMac
MiranaOhaiyo
DoomBoomy
Witch DoctorAhFu
Sand KingBok
little data
Disruptorcml
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 78%
Series resultOmega Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2