Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
HOYOwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TVTeam Veteranloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HOYO
Pangolieroften banned
Jhocam · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
Lone Druid
Meracle · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Meracle · 2 games
Ogre Magi
boombell · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
Team Veteran
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
48 picks · 83 bans
Puck
39 picks · 94 bans
Earth Spirit
35 picks · 27 bans
Void Spirit
35 picks · 51 bans
Monkey King
28 picks · 54 bans
Phoenix
27 picks · 37 bans
Undying
25 picks · 50 bans
Ember Spirit
24 picks · 35 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% HOYO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 63%
Series resultHOYO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect