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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1000 reasonsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 17 games
53%

1000 reasons

Void Spirit
Void Spirit
islA · 2 games
0%
Warlock
Warlock
Nagato · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
islA · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Nagato · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Krinzhik · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
550 picks · 822 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 368 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 643 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 578 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 747 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 579 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 474 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 534 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
Nigma Galaxy 74%1000 reasons 26%
The model gave 74% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
54% · 191 game40% · 205 games
KunkkaMTD
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
53% · 227 games48% · 156 games
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Timbersaw
Razor
RazorSumaiL
52% · 25 games44% · 198 games
DisruptorNagato
Disruptor
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
57% · 94 games50% · 169 games
Shadow DemonislA
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
55% · 191 game
Game 2prediction correct46:11
Nigma Galaxy 76%1000 reasons 24%
The model gave 76% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertarincyq
51% · 167 games52% · 169 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
56% · 87 games47% · 192 games
SlardarMTD
Slardar
Marci
MarciNo!ob
54% · 184 games43% · 130 games
Void SpiritislA
Void Spirit
Tusk
TuskOmaR
51% · 342 games51% · 309 games
WarlockNagato
Warlock
Io
IoGH
32% · 20 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 89%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2