Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
mudgolemsloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
mudgolems
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Skiter · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
33 · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Nine · 1 game
Brewmaster
33 · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Skiter · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Fata · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Nine · 1 game
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
47 picks · 82 bans
Puck
39 picks · 92 bans
Earth Spirit
35 picks · 26 bans
Void Spirit
33 picks · 51 bans
Monkey King
28 picks · 52 bans
Phoenix
27 picks · 37 bans
Undying
25 picks · 50 bans
Ember Spirit
24 picks · 34 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% mudgolems
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% mudgolems
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:28
mudgolems 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on mudgolems — the game was taken by Alliance in 37:30.
Game 2prediction correct42:25
mudgolems 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on mudgolems — the game was taken by mudgolems in 53:19.
Game 3prediction missed33:36
mudgolems 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on mudgolems — the game was taken by Alliance in 57:11.
Model check result
Model favoritemudgolems · 50%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3