Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTGTeam Generationloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Generation
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
46 picks · 81 bans
Puck
38 picks · 92 bans
Earth Spirit
35 picks · 26 bans
Void Spirit
31 picks · 51 bans
Monkey King
28 picks · 51 bans
Phoenix
25 picks · 37 bans
Undying
25 picks · 50 bans
Ember Spirit
24 picks · 33 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Generation
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Generation
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:14
Team Generation 51%PuckChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Generation — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 33:07.
Game 2prediction missed44:22
Team Generation 51%PuckChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Generation — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 43:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Generation · 51%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2