Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial Pro Gamingwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTTeam TikTokloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Imperial Pro Gaming
Clockwerk
Muka · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
Askold · 3 games
Elder Titanoften banned
antoha · 2 games
Nature's Prophet
SuperNova · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
SuperNova · 1 game
Earth Spirit
Muka · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Team TikTok
Dark Willow
illusion · 2 games
Grimstroke
633 · 2 games
Witch Doctor
633 · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Egor · 1 game
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
44 picks · 81 bans
Puck
37 picks · 91 bans
Earth Spirit
33 picks · 26 bans
Void Spirit
31 picks · 51 bans
Monkey King
28 picks · 50 bans
Phoenix
25 picks · 37 bans
Undying
25 picks · 49 bans
Ember Spirit
24 picks · 33 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Team TikTok
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team TikTok
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:23
Imperial Pro Gaming 48%Team TikTok 52%
The model gave 52% on Team TikTok — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAskold
Dragon KnightTA2000
Dark SeerSuperNova
MedusaEgor
Earth SpiritMuka
MarsDkFogas
Elder Titanantoha
Dark Willowillusion
56% · 5 games
Keeper of the Light633
Game 2prediction correct23:11
Imperial Pro Gaming 51%Team TikTok 49%
The model gave 51% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 30:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracAskold
TerrorbladeTA2000
UnderlordSuperNova
KunkkaEgor
Chenantoha
MarsDkFogas
Earth SpiritMuka
Grimstroke633
little data
Dark Willowillusion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam TikTok · 52%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2