?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
asdekor_r · 20 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
35%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 17 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
61%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 32 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 27 games
74%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 25 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SSS · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
550 picks · 821 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 366 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 644 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 577 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 744 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 578 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 473 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 536 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total74% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:32
AVULUS 36%1w Team 64%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:03:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
52% · 278 games49% · 365 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
44% · 199 games48% · 421 game
BeastmasterSquad1x
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsCorrupted
54% · 210 games54% · 273 games
TimbersawSSS
Timbersaw
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
50% · 366 games42% · 227 games
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Ringmaster
RingmasterWein
52% · 308 games57% · 75 games
Ogre MagiRein
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct14:35
AVULUS 36%1w Team 64%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
56% · 30 games47% · 35 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Viper
Viperdualrazee
64% · 44 games49% · 147 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Axe
AxeCorrupted
44% · 154 games46% · 125 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWein
52% · 151 game46% · 244 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Disruptor
Disruptorasdekor_r
52% · 216 games52% · 44 games
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction missed14:13
AVULUS 37%1w Team 63%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
Viperdualrazee
52% · 52 games46% · 141 game
JuggernautMunkushi~
Juggernaut
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
49% · 320 games51% · 154 games
WindrangerSquad1x
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
50% · 291 game47% · 197 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
54% · 132 games44% · 255 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinWein
65% · 47 games47% · 95 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 74%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3