Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionXXactJlepbIloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TTTeam TikTokwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XactJlepbI
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
nofear · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 1 game
Bristleback
lightless · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Funn1k · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
MagicaL · 1 game
Earth Spirit
KingR · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
MagicaL · 1 game
Team TikTok
Batrideroften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Dark Willow
illusion · 1 game
Grimstroke
633 · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Egor · 1 game
Tiny
illusion · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
41 picks · 78 bans
Puck
35 picks · 86 bans
Earth Spirit
33 picks · 24 bans
Void Spirit
30 picks · 46 bans
Monkey King
27 picks · 46 bans
Undying
25 picks · 47 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 30 bans
Ember Spirit
23 picks · 31 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team TikTok
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:38
XactJlepbI 52%Team TikTok 48%
The model gave 52% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by Team TikTok in 28:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawMagicaL
RikiTA2000
Juggernautlightless
LeshracEgor
Bounty HunterFunn1k
MarsDkFogas
Shadow ShamanKingR
Dark Willowillusion
Phoenixnofear
Grimstroke633
Game 2prediction correct28:37
XactJlepbI 49%Team TikTok 51%
The model gave 51% on Team TikTok — the game was taken by Team TikTok in 51:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelightless
Shadow FiendEgor
KunkkaMagicaL
Night StalkerTA2000
PangolierFunn1k
BeastmasterDkFogas
Nyx AssassinKingR
Rubickillusion
Keeper of the Lightnofear
Witch Doctor633
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 50%
Series resultTeam TikTok 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2