Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTGTeam Generationwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Generation
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Tidehunteroften banned
TheChosenOne · 2 games
Tusk
Lodine · 2 games
Bloodseeker
tatakae · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ainkrad · 1 game
Naga Siren
tatakae · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
39 picks · 75 bans
Puck
34 picks · 82 bans
Earth Spirit
31 picks · 23 bans
Void Spirit
28 picks · 44 bans
Monkey King
25 picks · 44 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 30 bans
Ember Spirit
23 picks · 30 bans
Phoenix
23 picks · 36 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:31
Team Generation 44%Nemiga Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:54.
Game 2prediction correct30:33
Team Generation 44%Nemiga Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 47:57.
Game 3prediction correct19:25
Team Generation 44%Nemiga Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 56%
Series resultTeam Generation 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3