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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Totally Spiesloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Imperial Pro Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Totally Spies

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
b1kA · 2 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
PuberrrR · 1 game
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Watson · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 1 game
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
Mirage · 1 game
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 1 game
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
PuberrrR · 1 game
100%

Imperial Pro Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Muka · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
SuperNova · 1 game
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titanoften banned
antoha · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
antoha · 1 game
100%
Io
Iooften banned
antoha · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
SuperNova · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
39 picks · 75 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
34 picks · 82 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
31 picks · 23 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
28 picks · 44 bans
53%
Monkey King
Monkey King
25 picks · 44 bans
48%
Mirana
Mirana
24 picks · 30 bans
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
23 picks · 30 bans
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
23 picks · 36 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Totally Spies
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Totally Spies
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:28
Totally Spies 48%Imperial Pro Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 24:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWatson
little datalittle data
LeshracAskold
Leshrac
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMirage
little datalittle data
Nature's ProphetSuperNova
Nature's Prophet
Io
Iob1kA
little datalittle data
Grimstrokeantoha
Grimstroke
Disruptor
DisruptorPuberrrR
little datalittle data
Earth SpiritMuka
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed38:41
Totally Spies 51%Imperial Pro Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Totally Spies — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 58:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirage
60% · 7 games38% · 4 games
LeshracAskold
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey KingWatson
little datalittle data
ViperSuperNova
Viper
Enigma
EnigmaPuberrrR
little data43% · 3 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritb1kA
little datalittle data
ClockwerkMuka
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTotally Spies · 50%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2