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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
re1bl · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
yamich · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
chshrct · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 1 game
0%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 1 game
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
dyrachyo · 1 game
0%

AS Monaco Gambit

Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
xannii · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Aoharide · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
xsvampire · 1 game
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Aoharide · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 1 game
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
37 picks · 73 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
34 picks · 81 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
30 picks · 22 bans
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
27 picks · 42 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
24 picks · 30 bans
43%
Monkey King
Monkey King
24 picks · 43 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
23 picks · 29 bans
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
23 picks · 35 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% AS Monaco Gambit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:9
Winstrike Team 49%AS Monaco Gambit 51%
The model gave 51% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedyrachyo
little datalittle data
Phantom Lancerxannii
Phantom Lancer
Lycan
Lycanre1bl
50% · 4 games50% · 4 games
Monkey KingLorenof
Monkey King
Mars
Marschshrct
40% · 6 gameslittle data
Keeper of the Lightxsvampire
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanyamich
little datalittle data
SlardarBlizzy
Slardar
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanto
little data60% · 6 games
UndyingAoharide
Undying
Game 2prediction correct30:25
Winstrike Team 52%AS Monaco Gambit 48%
The model gave 52% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautdyrachyo
43% · 3 gameslittle data
Templar AssassinLorenof
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritre1bl
43% · 3 gameslittle data
Drow Rangerxannii
Drow Ranger
Void Spirit
Void Spiritchshrct
50% · 6 games50% · 14 games
MarsBlizzy
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanyamich
56% · 5 games57% · 3 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanto
little datalittle data
OracleAoharide
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 50%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2