Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TVTeam Veteranloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Team Veteran
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
37 picks · 71 bans
Puck
33 picks · 80 bans
Earth Spirit
30 picks · 22 bans
Void Spirit
27 picks · 42 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 30 bans
Monkey King
24 picks · 43 bans
Ember Spirit
23 picks · 28 bans
Phoenix
23 picks · 34 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:31
Lilgun 50%Team Veteran 50%
The model gave 50% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Team Veteran in 40:20.
Game 2prediction missed35:19
Lilgun 50%Team Veteran 50%
The model gave 50% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Team Veteran in 43:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 50%
Accuracy by game0 of 2