Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HOYOloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Enchantressoften banned
343 · 3 games
Ogre Magi
343 · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Abaddon
343 · 1 game
Clinkz
AlaCrity · 1 game
HOYO
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
Pangolier
Jhocam · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Clockwerk
boombell · 1 game
Dark Seer
Forev · 1 game
Earth Spirit
Jhocam · 1 game
Lone Druid
Meracle · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
31 picks · 63 bans
Puck
29 picks · 72 bans
Earth Spirit
28 picks · 19 bans
Void Spirit
25 picks · 41 bans
Mirana
23 picks · 26 bans
Monkey King
22 picks · 41 bans
Undying
21 picks · 40 bans
Batrider
19 picks · 82 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% HOYO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:20
Nigma Galaxy SEA 50%HOYO 50%
The model gave 50% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeGhost
Monkey KingMeracle
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
Void SpiritFearless
Keeper of the Light343
AxeForev
57% · 3 games
MiranaJhocam
43% · 6 games
Nyx Assassinboombell
Game 2prediction missed30:22
Nigma Galaxy SEA 46%HOYO 54%
The model gave 54% on HOYO — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordGhost
Naga SirenMeracle
RikiAlaCrity
Queen of PainFearless
Rubick343
MarsForev
little data
PhoenixJhocam
little data
Undyingboombell
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 60%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2