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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dalanjing Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Phoenix Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
zzq · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
shiro · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
pLAnet · 1 game
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
shiro · 1 game
0%

Dalanjing Gaming

Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Eros · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
blessing · 1 game
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
blessing · 1 game
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Eros · 1 game
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Newbie · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tiny
Newbie · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
31 picks · 56 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
28 picks · 67 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
26 picks · 18 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
25 picks · 40 bans
52%
Monkey King
Monkey King
21 picks · 38 bans
56%
Undying
Undying
21 picks · 39 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
19 picks · 78 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
19 picks · 26 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:19
Phoenix Gaming 43%Dalanjing Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Dalanjing Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinshiro
43% · 3 games64% · 6 games
Monkey KingEros
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkaMercury
29% · 3 games71% · 3 games
Ember Spiritblessing
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerMolasses
little datalittle data
BeastmasterNewbie
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
29% · 3 games
Elder Titan
Elder Titanzzq
little data
Game 2prediction missed17:23
Phoenix Gaming 52%Dalanjing Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Dalanjing Gaming in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
little datalittle data
Phantom AssassinEros
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMercury
little datalittle data
Kunkkablessing
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMolasses
little datalittle data
TidehunterNewbie
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
little data
Elder Titan
Elder Titanzzq
little data
Game 3prediction missed28:5
Phoenix Gaming 49%Dalanjing Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Dalanjing Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 25:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMercury
little datalittle data
MedusaEros
Medusa
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
little datalittle data
Death Prophetblessing
Death Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterMolasses
little datalittle data
UnderlordNewbie
Underlord
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
little data
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinzzq
little data
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 50%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3