Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Assaultwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Assault
Beastmasteroften banned
Gy · 1 game
Clockwerk
rayy · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Gy · 1 game
Disruptor
rayy · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
JoHnNy · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Gy · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
JoHnNy · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
rayy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
31 picks · 56 bans
Puck
28 picks · 67 bans
Earth Spirit
26 picks · 18 bans
Void Spirit
25 picks · 40 bans
Monkey King
21 picks · 38 bans
Undying
21 picks · 39 bans
Batrider
19 picks · 78 bans
Mirana
19 picks · 26 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:34
Yangon Galacticos 55%Assault 45%
The model gave 55% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Assault in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYoung PH
Centaur WarrunnerGy
little data
PuckJoHnNy
little data
Tuskrayy
Game 2prediction missed42:37
Yangon Galacticos 51%Assault 49%
The model gave 51% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Assault in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerYoung PH
Night StalkerGy
little data
Shadow ShamanJoHnNy
little data
Tuskrayy
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 59%
Series resultAssault 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2