FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Marsoften banned
Norma · 19 games
Tusk
Fernans · 19 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 18 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
Warlock
flacko · 15 games
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 13 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Fernans · 13 games
VP.Prodigy
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 12 games
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 9 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
raregods · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
549 picks · 820 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 644 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 577 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 743 bans
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 578 bans
Mars
344 picks · 474 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 49%
Hero pool strength55% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:27
Inner Circle 57%VP.Prodigy 43%
The model gave 57% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon423
Underlordtakizawa
Storm Spiritniche
Shadow Fiendcutie
Bristlebacklaise
Ember SpiritRain
WarlockSe
Bounty Hunterraregods
TuskDaze
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Game 2prediction correct38:11
Inner Circle 59%VP.Prodigy 41%
The model gave 59% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother423
Underlordtakizawa
Dragon Knightniche
Gyrocoptercutie
Bristlebacklaise
LeshracRain
HoodwinkDaze
Bounty Hunterraregods
JakiroSe
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Game 3prediction correct27:21
Inner Circle 59%VP.Prodigy 41%
The model gave 59% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linaniche
Ursacutie
Dragon Knight423
Dawnbreakertakizawa
Enigmalaise
HuskarRain
ChenSe
Void Spiritraregods
Dark WillowDaze
JakiroJANTER
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 67%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3