Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Latam Defendersloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EgoBoyswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Latam Defenders
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Cucahook · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Cucahook · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
29 picks · 56 bans
Puck
28 picks · 64 bans
Earth Spirit
25 picks · 16 bans
Void Spirit
25 picks · 39 bans
Monkey King
21 picks · 37 bans
Undying
21 picks · 36 bans
Batrider
18 picks · 76 bans
Ember Spirit
18 picks · 19 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% EgoBoys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:37
Latam Defenders 45%EgoBoys 55%
The model gave 55% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 1:06:05.
Game 2prediction missed35:18
Latam Defenders 45%EgoBoys 55%
The model gave 55% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 35:24.
Game 3prediction correct14:43
Latam Defenders 45%EgoBoys 55%
The model gave 55% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 36:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 55%
Series resultEgoBoys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3