Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
A-Teamwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Electronic Boysloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
A-Team
No games played over 6 months.
Electronic Boys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
28 picks · 62 bans
Mars
26 picks · 56 bans
Earth Spirit
25 picks · 16 bans
Void Spirit
25 picks · 35 bans
Monkey King
20 picks · 34 bans
Undying
20 picks · 33 bans
Batrider
18 picks · 72 bans
Ember Spirit
18 picks · 19 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% A-Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% A-Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:42
A-Team 50%Electronic Boys 50%
The model gave 50% on A-Team — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 41:45.
Game 2prediction correct22:6
A-Team 50%Electronic Boys 50%
The model gave 50% on A-Team — the game was taken by A-Team in 15:54.
Game 3prediction correct40:16
A-Team 50%Electronic Boys 50%
The model gave 50% on A-Team — the game was taken by A-Team in 36:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteA-Team · 50%
Series resultA-Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3