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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
SsaSpartan · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
100%

Hellbear Smashers

Oracle
Oracleoften banned
tOfu · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Gilgir · 1 game
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commander
MISERY · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
tOfu · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubickoften banned
Gilgir · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
26 picks · 56 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
26 picks · 61 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
25 picks · 35 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
22 picks · 16 bans
62%
Monkey King
Monkey King
20 picks · 31 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
20 picks · 33 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
18 picks · 19 bans
68%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
17 picks · 32 bans
62%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:13
Brame 53%Hellbear Smashers 47%
The model gave 53% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 24:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaFocus
little datalittle data
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Bristleback
BristlebackW1sh-
little data43% · 3 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
little datalittle data
BatriderMISERY
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressSsaSpartan
little datalittle data
VisageGilgir
Visage
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
57% · 3 gameslittle data
Crystal MaidentOfu
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct30:32
Brame 50%Hellbear Smashers 50%
The model gave 50% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendW1sh-
little datalittle data
SpectreAce
Spectre
Slark
SlarkFocus
little datalittle data
BatriderStormstormer
Batrider
Enigma
EnigmaSkyLark
little datalittle data
BeastmasterMISERY
Beastmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
little datalittle data
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
little datalittle data
EarthshakerGilgir
Earthshaker
Game 3prediction missed10:34
Brame 50%Hellbear Smashers 50%
The model gave 50% on Brame — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerW1sh-
little datalittle data
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Enigma
EnigmaSkyLark
little data43% · 3 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Ursa
UrsaFocus
little datalittle data
VenomancerMISERY
Venomancer
Enchantress
EnchantressSsaSpartan
little datalittle data
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
57% · 3 gameslittle data
EarthshakerGilgir
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 50%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3