Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Spider Pigzs
Kunkkaoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 2 games
Miranaoften banned
dnz · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ThuG · 2 games
Chaos Knight
Mitch · 1 game
Clockwerk
dnz · 1 game
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
LeBronDota · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
25 picks · 53 bans
Void Spirit
25 picks · 34 bans
Puck
24 picks · 59 bans
Earth Spirit
21 picks · 16 bans
Ember Spirit
18 picks · 19 bans
Monkey King
18 picks · 29 bans
Undying
18 picks · 32 bans
Keeper of the Light
16 picks · 29 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Hippomaniacs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Hippomaniacs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:27
Hippomaniacs 50%Spider Pigzs 50%
The model gave 50% on Hippomaniacs — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 31:39.
Game 2prediction correct36:31
Hippomaniacs 50%Spider Pigzs 50%
The model gave 50% on Hippomaniacs — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 34:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteHippomaniacs · 50%
Series resultHippomaniacs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2