Technopark vs Nemiga Gaming — prediction DPC2S—ОК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Technoparkloss 0:2

series probability

41%59%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Technopark

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Void Spirit

24 picks · 30 bans

50%

Mars

20 picks · 50 bans

50%

Puck

19 picks · 53 bans

52%

Earth Spirit

17 picks · 12 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

16 picks · 18 bans

75%

Monkey King

15 picks · 27 bans

53%

Mirana

14 picks · 17 bans

50%

Undying

14 picks · 28 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%

Hero pool strength50% Technopark

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% Nemiga Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct8:30

Technopark 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%

The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 25:18.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo