Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSGshibu gamingloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
shibu gaming
No games played over 6 months.
V-Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
24 picks · 30 bans
Mars
20 picks · 50 bans
Puck
19 picks · 53 bans
Earth Spirit
17 picks · 12 bans
Ember Spirit
16 picks · 18 bans
Monkey King
15 picks · 27 bans
Mirana
14 picks · 17 bans
Undying
14 picks · 28 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% shibu gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% shibu gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:37
shibu gaming 51%V-Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on shibu gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 46:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MiranaAugust
Monkey KingKiritych
43% · 3 games
Storm SpirithAze
little data
Marslaise
little data
Shadow ShamanArrOw
Game 2prediction missed37:53
shibu gaming 51%V-Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on shibu gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 55:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UndyingAugust
Phantom AssassinKiritych
little data
Shadow FiendhAze
little data
Keeper of the LightArrOw
43% · 3 games
Marslaise
Model check result
Model favoriteshibu gaming · 50%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2