Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TVTeam Veteranloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Enchantress
343 · 3 games
Ogre Magi
343 · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Clinkz
AlaCrity · 1 game
Faceless Void
Ghost · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
AlaCrity · 1 game
Team Veteran
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
20 picks · 23 bans
Mars
18 picks · 45 bans
Puck
16 picks · 44 bans
Monkey King
15 picks · 22 bans
Earth Spirit
14 picks · 11 bans
Phoenix
12 picks · 24 bans
Crystal Maiden
11 picks · 0 bans
Ember Spirit
11 picks · 14 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Veteran
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Veteran
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:18
Nigma Galaxy SEA 40%Team Veteran 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Veteran — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 45:00.
Game 2prediction missed
Nigma Galaxy SEA 40%Team Veteran 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Veteran — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Veteran · 60%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2