Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
The Primeloss 1:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TVTeam Veteranloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Prime
Magnusoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
Clockwerk
Varizh · 1 game
Grimstroke
Varizh · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rusman · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Rusman · 1 game
Team Veteran
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Monkey King
14 picks · 16 bans
Puck
14 picks · 31 bans
Void Spirit
13 picks · 21 bans
Earth Spirit
12 picks · 9 bans
Mars
12 picks · 38 bans
Crystal Maiden
10 picks · 0 bans
Mirana
10 picks · 15 bans
Tiny
10 picks · 7 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Team Veteran
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Veteran
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:43
The Prime 40%Team Veteran 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Veteran — the game was taken by Team Veteran in 36:23.
Game 2prediction missed34:15
The Prime 40%Team Veteran 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Veteran — the game was taken by The Prime in 37:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Veteran · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2