Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team MagMawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Monkey King
14 picks · 15 bans
Puck
13 picks · 30 bans
Void Spirit
13 picks · 20 bans
Earth Spirit
12 picks · 9 bans
Mars
11 picks · 37 bans
Crystal Maiden
10 picks · 0 bans
Mirana
10 picks · 15 bans
Tiny
10 picks · 7 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:21
Invictus Gaming 50%Team MagMa 50%
The model gave 50% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 48:50.
Game 2prediction missed38:16
Invictus Gaming 50%Team MagMa 50%
The model gave 50% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 38:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 50%
Series resultTeam MagMa 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2