Team SMG vs Yangon Galacticos — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2

result vs prediction

Team SMGloss 0:2

series probability

31%69%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Death Prophet

Mushi · 2 games

Lina

AhFu · 2 games

Abaddon

ninjaboogie · 1 game

Anti-Mageoften banned

vtFαded · 1 game

Chaos Knight

Mushi · 1 game

Earth Spirit

AhFu · 1 game

Enigma

AhFu · 1 game

Lich

ninjaboogie · 1 game

Yangon Galacticos

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Monkey King

14 picks · 14 bans

56%

Puck

13 picks · 29 bans

59%

Void Spirit

13 picks · 18 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

11 picks · 8 bans

60%

Mars

11 picks · 33 bans

60%

Crystal Maiden

10 picks · 0 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

9 picks · 10 bans

77%

Mirana

9 picks · 14 bans

62%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%

Hero pool strength61% Yangon Galacticos

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total69% Yangon Galacticos

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct25:29

Team SMG 38%Yangon Galacticos 62%

The model gave 62% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 36:11.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo