Omega Esports vs Assault — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2

result vs prediction

Omega Esportswin 2:0

series probability

46%54%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Assaultloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Tiny

Boomy · 3 games

33%

Void Spiritoften banned

Mac · 3 games

33%

Batrideroften banned

Mac · 2 games

Earthshaker

Boomy · 2 games

50%

Ogre Magi

cml · 2 games

100%

Omniknight

cml · 2 games

Vengeful Spiritoften banned

Mac · 2 games

Weaveroften banned

Tino- · 2 games

Assault

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Monkey King

14 picks · 14 bans

56%

Puck

13 picks · 29 bans

59%

Void Spirit

13 picks · 18 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

11 picks · 8 bans

60%

Mars

11 picks · 33 bans

60%

Crystal Maiden

10 picks · 0 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

9 picks · 10 bans

77%

Mirana

9 picks · 14 bans

62%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%

Hero pool strength56% Assault

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total54% Assault

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed37:32

Omega Esports 47%Assault 53%

The model gave 53% on Assault — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 48:36.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo