Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Lilgunloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Enchantress
343 · 3 games
Ogre Magi
343 · 2 games
Riki
Ghost · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 1 game
Faceless Void
Ghost · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
AlaCrity · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Ghost · 1 game
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
13 picks · 15 bans
Earth Spirit
11 picks · 8 bans
Mars
11 picks · 27 bans
Crystal Maiden
10 picks · 0 bans
Monkey King
10 picks · 13 bans
Puck
10 picks · 26 bans
Mirana
9 picks · 12 bans
Ember Spirit
8 picks · 10 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:30
Nigma Galaxy SEA 46%Lilgun 54%
The model gave 54% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 33:41.
Game 2prediction missed38:10
Nigma Galaxy SEA 46%Lilgun 54%
The model gave 54% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 24:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2