Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubwin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
EgoBoysloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Incubus Club
Clockwerk
Nuages · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 1 game
Pangolier
mini-` · 1 game
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Sand King
Jupiter · 1 game
Spectre
Benny · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Benny · 1 game
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Earth Spirit
11 picks · 7 bans
Mars
10 picks · 22 bans
Puck
10 picks · 22 bans
Void Spirit
10 picks · 14 bans
Crystal Maiden
9 picks · 0 bans
Tiny
8 picks · 5 bans
Brewmaster
7 picks · 2 bans
Ember Spirit
7 picks · 8 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Incubus Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:25
Incubus Club 47%EgoBoys 53%
The model gave 53% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 33:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 53%
Series resultIncubus Club 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1