Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Unknownwin 1:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CCrewmatesloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unknown
Earth Spirit
Wij · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 1 game
Enchantress
Yadomi · 1 game
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Slardar
drakeel · 1 game
Templar Assassin
Robo-Z · 1 game
Crewmates
Abaddon
DFlash · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
DFlash · 1 game
Iooften banned
FCR · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Lina
4nalog · 1 game
Queen of Pain
4nalog · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Earth Spirit
11 picks · 7 bans
Mars
10 picks · 22 bans
Puck
10 picks · 22 bans
Void Spirit
10 picks · 14 bans
Crystal Maiden
9 picks · 0 bans
Tiny
8 picks · 5 bans
Brewmaster
7 picks · 2 bans
Ember Spirit
7 picks · 8 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 30%
Hero pool strength68% Team Unknown
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:40
Team Unknown 62%Crewmates 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 49:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritRobo-Z
Arc WardenFCR
Naga SirenBerna
Void Spirit4nalog
Nature's Prophetdrakeel
AxeH1j4ck
Nyx AssassinWij
UndyingDFlash
EnchantressYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 73%
Series resultTeam Unknown 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1