Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Latam Defenderswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Latam Defenders
Oracle
Aretes · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
Tusk
Moonlight · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
10 picks · 19 bans
Void Spirit
10 picks · 13 bans
Earth Spirit
9 picks · 6 bans
Puck
8 picks · 21 bans
Brewmaster
7 picks · 2 bans
Ember Spirit
7 picks · 7 bans
Crystal Maiden
6 picks · 0 bans
Juggernaut
6 picks · 6 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:25
Hokori 54%Latam Defenders 46%
The model gave 54% on Hokori — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 37:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 54%
Series resultLatam Defenders 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1