Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubwin 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CCrewmatesloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Incubus Club
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 1 game
Pangolier
mini-` · 1 game
Spectre
Benny · 1 game
Crewmates
Abaddon
DFlash · 1 game
Iooften banned
FCR · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Queen of Pain
4nalog · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
10 picks · 19 bans
Void Spirit
10 picks · 13 bans
Earth Spirit
9 picks · 6 bans
Puck
8 picks · 21 bans
Brewmaster
7 picks · 2 bans
Ember Spirit
7 picks · 7 bans
Crystal Maiden
6 picks · 0 bans
Juggernaut
6 picks · 6 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Incubus Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:33
Incubus Club 55%Crewmates 45%
The model gave 55% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 47:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeBenny
Troll WarlordFCR
Puckmini-`
Lina4nalog
Sand KingJupiter
BatriderH1j4ck
ClockwerkNuages
Crystal MaidenDFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 58%
Series resultIncubus Club 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1